In Probably Stolen: Cyberpunk Shopkeeper Sim, raids can occur at night during regular play. After you go to sleep, a thief could enter your store and steal one item. The chance is affected by several numbers that you can improve.
Quick answer: Without insurance, the break-in chance starts at 33% a night and rises. Buy Joe Wild’s insurance from Day 4, run a powered Alarm, and avoid being Marked. Cartel Protection, Vigilant or VIP Security stop robberies entirely.
| Factor | Effect on break-in chance |
|---|---|
| No insurance (base) | 33% per night |
| Each consecutive uninsured night | +5% |
| Marked | +33% |
| Security Protection | −16% |
| Insured | About 6% of nights, item returned |
| Cartel Protection, Vigilant or VIP Security | Never robbed |
Break-in chance in Probably Stolen
Being Marked adds 33% on top. Security Protection pulls the chance down by 16%. If you skip the intro, you get 3 grace nights.
You find out in the morning. The next day’s Nightly Report names what went: on our uninsured night it read “-You’ve been robbed! Wire was stolen!” A thief takes one item, and documents, containers, machines, locked items, items behind a lock and anything in the Smuggler’s Bay are never taken.
The other night log lines tell you how a break-in went: “There’s been a break in! Luckily, the security alarm was triggered and the thief left empty handed.”, “There was a burglary last night! What the hell?! The security alarm failed!”, and with insurance, “Joe Wild’s men found the thief and brought back the stolen item in the morning.” The run summary also records the worst one as a Worst Night highlight and adds it to Burglary on the Security tab.
Stock placement also affects theft risk. On Day 1, the Mentor advises you to leave both sides of the counter clear; anything left on the outside counter could be stolen.
How the Alarm stops break-ins
The Alarm is a machine you upgrade with modules. Each module has two stats. Performance is the Prevention Rate Bonus, and efficiency is the Power Consumption.
With the Alarm switched on, it stops a break-in 50% of the time plus its Performance bonus. Better modules raise that prevention rate. The Alarm needs power to work, so fit it and keep it powered.
Nightly services appear on the End of Day panel, which notes “Services Can Be Toggle On Or Off Every Night”. Power Service is one of them and costs 5 credits on Mark Up (see our beginner guide for the end of a day).
Joe Wild’s insurance: when it unlocks and what it costs
Joe Wild makes insurance available on Day 4, when he visits the store and offers “to insure all of your goods in case of theft.” From that night the End of Day panel lists Insurance Service under Power Service; on Mark Up it cost 6 credits a night after Day 4, and its tooltip reads “If paid, any items stolen during the night will be returned to you the next morning.” It won’t stop every theft: a break-in occurs on roughly 6% of insured nights, and Wild’s men return the stolen item.
The nightly price is your Estimated Total Wealth divided by 400, plus 3 credits. That base is then multiplied by difficulty.
| Difficulty or condition | Insurance cost |
|---|---|
| Price Gouge | x1 |
| Mark Up | x1 |
| Thin Margins | x2 |
| Red Ink | x3 |
| Marked | Doubled |
| Wild’s Favorite perk | Halved |
| On Wild’s Bad Side | +50% |
For instance, on Mark Up, insurance costs around 5 credits per night with 793 Estimated Total Wealth after Day 1. The premium is based on your wealth, so it increases as your store grows richer.
Being Marked hurts twice. It adds 33% to the break-in chance and doubles your insurance bill.
Perks and protection that prevent night robberies
Three options mean your store is never robbed at night.
- Cartel Protection: no night robberies while active.
- Vigilant (every perk is in our starting perks guide): a starting perk described as “never robbed at night”, costing -2 Perk Point.
- VIP Security: no night robberies while active.
Wild’s Favorite is a starting perk that makes insurance cheaper rather than replacing it. Its description reads “All upgrades from Wild’s Network cost 10% less. Insurance costs 50% less.”
Tips to keep your store from being robbed
- Keep valuables off the outside counter.
- If you have valuable stock, get insurance when Joe Wild makes it available on Day 4.
- Fit the Alarm and keep it powered.
- Avoid being Marked.
Insurance gets stolen items returned, while the Alarm reduces how often a thief gets through.
